Picks against the spread for every game

The Jets universe changed in a big way Tuesday when they sent away two of their top players — Sauce Gardner to the Colts and Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys — in exchange for three first-round picks and a second-rounder over the next two years. 

They also received WR Adonai Mitchell, DT Mazi Smith, and a salary-cap cleanout that, combined with the additional draft capital, should allow Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey to hand-pick the players they want to finally successfully rebuild the team.

I recommend all Jets fans take a listen to The Post’s “Gang’s All Here” podcast from Tuesday, on which Brian Costello, Ryan Sampson, and Frankie Vittorini attacked all of the issues over the course of 90 minutes. Most of what I think was covered there, but here are my CliffsNotes:

1. The Jets weren’t winning with Gardner and Williams and probably were never going to.

2. The trade haul and cap flexibility was their best chance to build around the strongest remaining parts of the team — Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, if they re-sign or franchise tag him, and a solid offensive line.

3. It’s all about finding a franchise quarterback, and now the Jets have given themselves multiple chances to do that over the next two drafts without having to reach or empty the cupboard in a trade-up.

The Jets have given their fans endless hours of mock draft fun and some big April nights to look forward to. But here in the picks department, we’re more concerned with what it all means for Sunday’s home game against the Browns.

Interestingly, the line flipped in this game from Jets -2 to Browns -2.5 in the hours after Tuesday’s deals. Oddsmakers obviously figured the sell-off was confirmation of a Jets’ all-out tank for the No. 1 pick. 

I don’t see it quite that way. If anything, the extra selections make it less imperative that the Jets need to end up at the top of the board. The best quarterbacks of the recent era (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson) weren’t drafted with the top pick

The Jets’ one win came without Gardner, anyway, and Williams wasn’t doing all that much. “Next men up” will step in and play hard. It’ll also be interesting to see what Mitchell and John Metchie can do, particularly if Wilson joins them. Tanner Engstrand could call a game unlike any the Browns have seen on film this season.

I believe most Jets fans were ecstatic about the deals, and MetLife on Sunday could have a vibe that’s more of a party than funereal.

The pick: Jets +2.5. 

CHICAGO BEARS (-4.5) over New York Giants

Joe Schoen took the opposite tack as Mougey and stood pat on deadline day. There are probably a handful of Giants who could have been flipped for picks. Are Schoen and Brian Daboll concerned that 3-14 or 4-13 would be curtains, or was the Jaxson Dart sugar high combined with excuse-worthy injuries to Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo enough to buy them another year? 

Anyway, injuries on both sides make this a tough call. D’Andre Swift should play for the Bears, but Kyle Monangai, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore are all questionable. Dart doesn’t have much left to work with, and he should consider getting down and taking fewer big hits on his scrambles. 

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) over Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin, Germany)

Jets fans will now start rooting for the Colts to lose so the first-rounder for Gardner can rise from its current No. 32. Bettors have to consider whether the five-sack, three-interception disaster in Pittsburgh was an outlier, or if Daniel Jones’ stunning start was the anomaly. The Falcons can never be trusted as favorites, but there’s a lot of talent for a near-touchdown underdog on a neutral field.

Buffalo Bills (-9.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami has been a puzzle of late, with a 34-10 win at Atlanta sandwiched by blowout losses to the Browns and Ravens. The Bills have enough midweek injury noise on defense and with James Cook to at least give some pause for laying the large road number. But the feeling here is the Bills could pick up where the Ravens’ rout left off.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-5.5) over New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough has a game on his résumé, but loses Rashid Shaheed via trade. The Saints are 0-4 on the road with an average margin of defeat of almost 19.25 ppg. Though Carolina has just two wins by more than this spread, I like the alternative even less. 

HOUSTON TEXANS (+1) over Jacksonville Jaguars

This line flipped favorites on the confirmation that Davis Mills will replace C.J. Stroud. Mills hasn’t started a game since 2022 and is 5-19-1 as a starter. Not a lot of hope there, but this is a season-saving game for the 3-5 Texans while the Jaguars may have the shakiest 5-3 record we’ve seen in a while. 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (+4) over Baltimore Ravens

There’s some feeling that the Ravens might be ready to roll through the rest of the season now that Lamar Jackson and the band are back together. It’s never totally smooth sailing for any team, though, and anything more than a field goal feels like too much to be giving J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings at the Skol dome.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over New England Patriots

Are Drake Maye and the Patriots this week’s Daniel Jones and the Colts? New England takes a six-game winning streak to the pirate ship to face a Bucs team that’s lost only to the Eagles and Lions, and is fresh off a bye. Baker Mayfield should have his healthiest crew in a while. 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Arizona Cardinals

The Cards’ Monday night victory at Dallas brought this line under a full touchdown. Jacoby Brissett is now the acknowledged starter, and he’s been doing well, but this is a short week, a tough place to play, and a very strong opponent on both sides of the ball. 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (+4.5) over Los Angeles Rams

This line ticked up a point and now there seems to be some nice value on the home-underdog 49ers, who beat the Rams in L.A., 26-23 in overtime in Week 5. Though the spread is likely a fair reflection of the injury reports, Christian McCaffrey is in top form for the 49ers, and 4.5 points are a lot for a bitter-rivalry game.

Detroit Lions (-8) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Hard to believe the Lions are only 5-3, so figuring last week’s home loss to the Vikings will lead to a nice rebound. Keep an eye on reports about star offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, though. Both missed practice midweek. Did Dan Quinn lose his team by keeping Jayden Daniels in to get injured at the end of a blowout loss last week? 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Pittsburgh won outright as a home underdog vs. the Colts. And if the defense can keep up its turnover assault, it would spell trouble for Justin Herbert behind a banged-up offensive line that lost stud Joe Alt for the season. I expected Aaron Rodgers would get better as the season goes along, so we’ll put that to the test.

Betting on the NFL?

Monday

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Any time you can get the defending champs with points, you have to consider it. Ex-Dolphin Jaelen Phillips joins a defense that needed another playmaker in the box. Tight end Tucker Kraft is a huge loss for the Packers. He led the team in receiving yards and touchdown receptions. 

BEST BETS: Buccaneers, Falcons, Eagles.

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Buccaneers (Locks 3-6 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 6-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Raiders.