No one is saying no to a little Black Friday football.
The Bears come in as seven-point road underdogs at BetMGM on Friday afternoon for a 3 p.m. ET matchup against the Eagles, streamed on Prime Video.
Philadelphia hasn’t been playing its best football this season, with its offense marred by inconsistency for much of the year.
The Eagles are 21st in the NFL in yards per play this season, averaging 5.2 yards per play, and seemingly getting worse.
Nick Sirianni’s bunch is averaging 4.8 yards per play in its last three games.
The Eagles’ defense, however, is a much better unit, ranking No. 10 in the NFL on Pro Football Focus and No. 8 in defensive DVOA.
The oddsmakers expect that unit to control most of this game, with the total coming in at just 44 points despite both offenses ranking in the top 15 in DVOA.
Bears vs. Eagles prediction
From a betting perspective, this appears to be a game to target aggressively according to my betting model.
The total of 44 appears to be pretty off, according to my betting model, which has a projected score of 27.29-24.24 (roughly 52 points) in favor of the Eagles.
This would be a spot to target Overs for player props, considering the low total that could be off by seven points if my model is accurate.
I have to trust what the numbers tell me here, and they’re saying that the Bears’ offense is strong and the Eagles’ defense isn’t quite as dominant as it appeared against the Lions when they held them to three field goals two weeks ago.
The Bears are certainly a worthy bet at +7, given you’re passing two key numbers there.
Chicago is indeed lucky to be 8-3, but even the advanced stats are pushing us in their direction thanks to a strong offensive line that is ranked No. 7, according to PFF.
If Ben Johnson can rely on DeAndre Swift, he should designed pass plays for the veteran a fair bit.
The Eagles are No. 31 in the NFL against running backs in the pass game, allowing 41.55 yards per game, the fourth-most against running backs in the pass game.
Target Swift Over 9.5 receiving yards at -162 odds at FanDuel, and slam his alternate Overs as well, considering he’s the only receiving back on the team as Kyle Monanghi takes over the goal line work.
Over 29.5 yards is +500 on Caesars Sportsbook, by far the best line of any sportsbook, with most other sportsbooks in the +360 territory for the prop. So if you’re looking for more risk and a potentially larger payout, you could do worse than this wager.
Betting on the NFL?
Swift is a strong bet to get plenty of work in the pass game and it’s unclear to me why his total is so low given his performance this season.
His last seven games receiving yards totals by game: 14, 0, 18, 26, 14, 67, 22, 45.
He’s only gone Under 9.5 once.
Naturally, my model has some value on the Bears +7 and the over 44 points, which is a solid wager as well.
It’s an aggressive play, so be sure to bet it responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
As always, we’re looking for value, and this one specifically is hitting plenty of signals on my model to justify more than one bet.
THE PLAYS: Bears +7 | Over 44 points | De’Andre Swift Over 9.5 receiving yards (-162, FanDuel) | Swift 30+ receiving yards (+500, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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