Bengals vs. Ravens prediction: NFL Week 12 picks, odds, best bets

Thanksgiving Day’s nightcap comes down to two quarterbacks and two questionable toes.

Joe Burrow makes his anticipated return from a Grade 3 turf toe injury that required surgery and has kept him off the field since Week 2. 

Burrow could have potentially played last Sunday in the Bengals’ 26-20 loss to the Patriots. With the short turnaround, the team opted to hold off his return to Week 13. 

Lamar Jackson has been hampered with a toe injury throughout the week — his third new injury in three straight weeks. The knee soreness and an ankle injury he experienced over the last two respective contests weren’t enough to stop the Ravens from winning; they straddle a five-game win streak into this AFC North rivalry match. 

But the Ravens’ scoring has been modest. They only chalked up 23 points against the Browns and Jets, respectively, and failed to cover in either of those games.

Jackson’s production hasn’t had its usual punch, throwing for under 200 yards in both contests against the Browns and Jets and amassing zero total touchdowns. His mobility is missing, too, combining for 21 scrimmage yards in those games.

The first shared thought is, how can we trust a rusty Burrow? 

His toe is reportedly stable and is not expected to hinder his play. 

Ja’Marr Chase will be at Burrow’s disposal, but there’s the concern of no Tee Higgins. Chase will be bracketed and Burrow will need aid from the likes of Trenton Irwin, Tanner Hudson and Charlie Jones. 

Chase’s expertise as a deep-ball threat didn’t pump his brakes against the Ravens in last season’s two meetings: He averaged 11 catches for 229 yards and hauled in five scores. 

Burrow averaged 410 yards through the air and roped nine touchdowns. 

The scoring margins of those games were three and one point.

Besides, the Ravens are No. 27 overall in explosive play rate allowed per Sharp Football Analysis. 

Betting on the NFL?

The Bengals counter as No. 31; they’re a historically horrible NFL defense, though I can’t see that being entirely exploited with Jackson’s recent form, a passing game that averages a pedestrian 6.1 yards per attempt and an ultra run-heavy approach from Derrick Henry. 

Baltimore’s purring defense is another common perception; it hasn’t allowed more than 20 points since losing 44-10 to the Texans on Oct. 5. Let’s remember those games have been against Tua Tagovailoa, J.J McCarthy, Dillon Gabriel and Tyrod Taylor — not one of those ranking within the top 20 in passer rating. 

An elite quarterback is all the difference in this league. Cincinnati was a team that was in the AFC conversation in the preseason before Burrow’s absence relegated them to irrelevance. 

I expect the Bengals to make Burrow’s return worth the go against the overvalued Ravens in a spread that’s heavily based on perception and skepticism. 

THE PLAY: Bengals +7 (-105, Fanatics)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.