Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction: NFL Week 13 picks, odds, best bets for Thanksgiving clash

In what looks like the most interesting game on a loaded Thanksgiving Day of NFL matchups, the Chiefs are favored over the Cowboys on Thursday afternoon.

It’s a big spot for the Chiefs on Thursday, with a win, they increase their chances of making the playoffs from around 57 percent, depending on the model you are running, to the upper 60 percent.

A loss, however, could be a killer, moving the Chiefs to a sub-40 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The same can be said for the Cowboys, 5-5-1, who have a roughly 25 percent chance to make the playoffs prior to Thursday’s tilt, which would improve to between 35 and 45 percent with a win.

It’s a massive game that may be the most watched Thanksgiving Day football game in television history.

Below we break down how we are betting Chiefs vs. Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, where Kansas City opens as 3.5-point favorites.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys prediction

My model has the projected score of this game at 28.45 to 24.22, so the spread of this game is pretty dead-on.

The Chiefs have made a habit of falling behind early, particularly on the road, where they are 1-3-1 against the first-half spread this season.

Dallas averages 15.7 points per game in the first half, the third most in the NFL. While their defense has improved since adding Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson at the trade deadline, I think both teams put up some points here.

Betting on the NFL?

Look for this to be a playoff atmosphere from start to finish, with their big-time playoff performer, Travis Kelce, involved.

He had multiple plays called back last week, including a touchdown against the Colts.

I suspect he gets involved in this must-win spot and I suspect they cover as well given the high pressure spot. My model gives them a slight half point advantage.

Back Kelce to get into the endzone and have a strong showing this weekend.

THE PLAY: Chiefs -3.5 | Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+125, Caesars)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.