NFL predictions: Picks against the spread for Thanksgiving, Black Friday and full Week 13 slate

THE NFL’s Thanksgiving slate starts off with a puzzle between the Lions and Packers at Ford Field, a jigsaw puzzle, you might say.

Both of these playoff-bound teams from the NFC North feature depth charts that are littered with Q’s early in the week, so many key players whose availability and/or probable effectiveness will not be known at the time we have to make a selection.

On the Lions’ side, we’re talking about four of the starting five offensive linemen, including tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. They’ve been playing through injuries, and if you back Detroit you have to hope they’ll be there again to combat Micah Parsons, who is heating up with 10 sacks. The Lions also have had cluster injuries in the secondary, on full display last week when they gave up 517 yards to the Giants.

The Packers have fewer Q’s but do have some troubling O’s, as starting RB Josh Jacobs and WR Matthew Golden join TE Tucker Kraft on the outs. Green Bay has less firepower than it did in Week 1 when it blasted Detroit, 27-13, while the Lions have the revenge motive.

Some interesting stats from Covers.com: The Lions are averaging 34.7 ppg at home and have gone 11-3 since the start of last season, while the Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine against a soft slate.

The pick: Lions -2.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over DALLAS COWBOYS

Treading lightly here because the Cowboys may have found another gear in their comeback against the Eagles. George Pickens has certainly been the trade acquisition of the year for the Cowboys. 

One thing that result did, though, was bring the point spread for Cowboys-Chiefs down to the key number of three. Figuring there were underlying reasons why Dallas needed to climb out of a 21-0 hole vs. Philadelphia, and Patrick Mahomes and Steve Spagnuolo will find them over the course of three hours — and not fall off a cliff the way the Eagles did.

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

Even though they’ve won five in a row, the Ravens don’t project as the same steamrolling offense they used to be. Lamar Jackson is dealing with toe and ankle issues and looked a bit slower on his RPO runs against the Jets, who also limited Derrick Henry to 3.0 yards per carry. Baltimore scored 23 points against the Jets but seven of those came on a short field after Aaron Glenn went for it on fourth down in his own end.

Interestingly the line held at seven even after Joe Burrow practiced on Monday. Ja’Marr Chase returns from his spitting suspension, though Tee Higgins is out and so is sack man Trey Hendrickson. Tough call but hoping the AFC North rivalry helps to keep the damage under a touchdown.

FRIDAY

Chicago Bears (+7) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

On Black Friday, beware deals that seem too good to be true. Is that the case here with the 8-3, first-place Bears getting a full touchdown against an Eagles team that is just a few days removed from blowing a massive lead against the Cowboys? 

It’s definitely time for Philadelphia to stop fielding punts at the 1-yard line then fumbling. So maybe this is the week the Eagles put it all together, but know this: They have won only one game all season by more than seven points — a 38-20 rout of the Giants in which Saquon Barkley ran for 150 yards (his only time this season over 100). 

SUNDAY

NEW YORK JETS (+2.5) over Atlanta Falcons

We’ve reached the point in the season where every Jets touchdown brings a “There goes Fernando Mendoza” lament from their fans. I doubt Glenn and the Jets players care about that. If anything, their defense is moving up the ranks statistically and Tyrod Taylor, AD Mitchell and John Metchie III appear to be reviving the passing game. Falcons are 1-4 ATS as favorites, not the spot you’d want to back them. 

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-5) over San Francisco 49ers

I’m prone to overrating travel spots in the handicaps, but this is somewhat of a tough one for the 49ers — cross country for an early start after a Monday nighter … with a big turkey dinner in between. The hope here is the healthy Browns defense will turn this into a street fight.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

This is also the point in the season where teams battling the Jets for the top pick in the draft do what they’re supposed to do, and that means the Titans here. It’s largely been a struggle of late for the Jaguars, but all you need to look at is their 35-6 destruction of the Chargers two weeks ago to see what they’re capable of doing. 

Houston Texans (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Texans come in with the No. 1 yardage defense in the NFL (264.3) and are No. 2 in points per game allowed (16.3). So that has to cross your mind at any number over a field goal — and there’s even more wiggle room here. Colts are 1-2 in their last three, with the win in OT vs. the Falcons in Berlin.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6) over New Orleans Saints

It appears the Saints are determined to win the race to the bottom (and thus the top of the draft). Dolphins have covered six of their last nine games and have recent blowout wins over the Falcons and Bills. Another easy one for De’Von Achane & crew.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3) over Arizona Cardinals

One offshoot of the Bucs’ disastrous loss to the Rams is that this spread comes in at a manageable number, even if Teddy Bridgewater has to fill in for Baker Mayfield. The Cardinals are 1-8 in their last nine games and the Bucs are still battling for a division title, as banged up as they are. 

Los Angeles Rams (-10) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

While it’s a lot of points for a road game, I’m not interested in messing with the Rams. They’ve won six in a row — five of those by 14 points or more. Panthers also have the short week after the California Monday nighter.

Betting on the NFL?

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Minnesota Vikings

This line has steamed into double digits on the news that rookie Max Brosmer is likely to start for the Vikings in place of J.J. McCarthy (concussion). Seattle’s a tough place for a neophyte quarterback. And Sam Darnold gets to show Kevin O’Connell what he’s missing. 

Buffalo Bills (+4) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

The Bills have lost two of three to drop to 7-4 and it’s time they start to get serious about the season. The AFC is wide open and they still haven’t been to the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era. With a few extra days’ rest, figuring we get the best version of the Bills here in a challenging venue. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10) over Las Vegas Raiders

It’s possible the canning of OC Chip Kelly will be addition by subtraction for the Raiders, but more likely that team is an irreparable mess. Justin Herbert and the Chargers had a bye week to shake off a 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. Expect to see a similar result in reverse here. 

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+6.5) over Denver Broncos

Denver has won eight in a row, but six of those victories came by four points or less, including the miracle vs. the Giants. Spread’s large enough to hope for a decent effort from the Commanders at home.

MONDAY

New York Giants (+7.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Like the Broncos, the Patriots are another team on a long winning streak that’s just getting by of late (1-3 ATS in last four). It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants defense perks up after the Shane Bowen firing. Giants have a pretty successful history against the Patriots, in case anyone’s forgotten. 

BEST BETS: Dolphins, Seahawks, Chargers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Dolphins (Locks 5-7 in 2025)

LAST WEEK: 4-8-2 overall, 1-1-1 Best Bets

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.