Odds, picks, and best bet

The ‘Ugly Underdogs‘ got back into the win column on Saturday with a gritty performance from Boston College against Notre Dame. The Eagles’ defense was heroic throughout the afternoon, shutting out the Irish in the first quarter and only giving up 25 total points, meaning they would have covered the spread even if they were shut out. Things went so swimmingly that we’ll go right back to the well and fade the Fighting Irish with a bet on Navy in Week 11.

It feels like Notre Dame is high-stepping its way back into the big dance.

The Fighting Irish (6-2) were ranked No. 10 in the first installment of the College Football Playoff rankings, ahead of fellow two-loss teams like Texas, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt, plus one-loss squads such as Virginia, Louisville, and Georgia Tech.

The committee tagged Miami at No. 18. The Hurricanes beat the Irish in Week 1.

In other words, the Selection Committee is tipping its hand. If Notre Dame takes care of business and wins out against Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Stanford — they’re in.

Is it fair? We’ll let the talk-show radio hosts in Austin, Norman, and Nashville debate that. We’ve got more important things to discuss. Like whether or not Notre Dame is getting too many points against Navy on Saturday night in South Bend.

The Midshipmen started the season with eight wins on the spin, but they were undone by North Texas, 31-17, in Week 10. On the surface, that may seem like a bad loss, but the Mean Green have been one of the best teams in the Group of 5 this season. Don’t be shocked to see them in the Playoff.

Navy vs. Notre Dame odds, prediction

North Texas is also a nightmare matchup for Navy. The Mean Green absolutely love to air the ball out, and they are quite good at doing it. North Texas ranks first in the nation in points per game (43.6), second in yards per game (491.4), and 10th in yards per play (6.8). There is no shame in losing to the boys from Denton.

The Fighting Irish are better than North Texas, but they are much more Navy’s cup of tea.

With a freshman quarterback, a Heisman-candidate running back, and a sturdy defense, the Irish want to play in an old-school, physical football game. They want it to look like 1966 with Jeremiyah Love playing the role of Rocky Bleier.

You won’t hear any complaints from Navy.

Betting on College Football?

Only Army runs the ball more than the Midshipmen this season, but it’s the Mids who do it better than anybody else in the country, at least in terms of yards per rush.

Notre Dame will be the best defense that the Midshipmen face all season, but Navy will be the most unique offense that the Irish go up against. Stopping the triple-option, especially when it’s flowing as well as it has for Navy this year, is no easy task. Navy should find paydirt with some regularity on Saturday, and they’ll chew up the clock on their way.

It seems to me like the betting market is underestimating Navy’s chances in this tilt. According to SP+, the Midshipmen are the 50th-best team in the country, essentially on par with the likes of Baylor, Duke, and Boise State. The Broncos closed as a 21.5-point favorite in South Bend earlier this season.

Navy, which plays a style of football more conducive to covering big spreads than Boise State does, is five points adrift of that mark.

Betting on College Football?

To me, this seems like a similar situation to what we saw with Boston College last weekend. The narrative around the Irish is that they need to make a statement to impress the Selection Committee. That sentiment is impacting how this game is being bet, with punters happy to pay a premium on Notre Dame against a Group of 5 program that just got housed by North Texas.

Buy low on Navy and don’t be shocked if this one comes down to the wire.

The Play: Navy +26.5

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.