Russia getting its way would cost Europe hundreds of billions more than ensuring Ukraine victory: study

Helping Ukraine defeat Russia is a cheaper prospect for Europe than giving into the Kremlin’s concessions, according to a new study titled “Europe’s Choice” out of Norway.

Funding Ukraine’s war effort over four years will cost European governments between $606 and $972 billion, but it would cost them almost double, between $1.4 and $1.8 trillion, to reinforce its eastern flank if Moscow gets its way.

“The recent 28-point peace plan proposed from the Trump administration illustrates the urgent need for Europe to take initiative and ownership of diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s illegal war,” read the study, published by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and consultants at Corisk.

The researchers said the Trump administration is “out of touch with the real issues at stake,” and conducted their study assuming Ukraine will receive almost no support from the United States.

Without increased military support for Ukraine, the report predicts a gradual Russian victory which could cost the European Union up to $1.8 trillion.

In that scenario, millions of refugees would flee Ukraine and flood Europe, costing governments billions of dollars, according to the researchers. The Kremlin will have strengthened Russia’s geopolitical advantage, and might shift its gaze towards the Arctic or Baltic regions, driving up NATO countries’ defense spending to secure western borders.

But, if the European Union can secure up to $972 billion over four years to fund the Ukrainian military, the report suggests a decisive win is within Kyiv’s grasp. The infusion would allow millions of refugees to return home and stabilize the region, attracting foreign investment.

“In the event of a permanent conflict or a Russian victory, Ukraine will incur a permanent need for support, while in the event of a Ukrainian military victory, Western support will be much reduced over time,” argue the authors.

The funding would go towards an additional 8 million drones, 95 brigades, and up to 2,500 new battle tanks, among other hardware. The report also proposes that the necessary funding could be found by confiscating frozen Russian assets.