How our prediction model works
We rate every team on attack and defence from real results, then use a Poisson goals model to price each market. It is simple, transparent and gets better as more matches are played.
Plain-English notes on how the numbers work.
We rate every team on attack and defence from real results, then use a Poisson goals model to price each market. It is simple, transparent and gets better as more matches are played.
Fair odds are 100 divided by the model probability. Bookmakers add a margin, so their odds are lower. If a bookmaker price beats our fair odds, that is a possible value bet.
Multiplying many likely picks lowers your real chance fast. Five 80% picks win about one time in three. Reaching ×200 needs many more legs, so treat big targets as long shots.